Originally Posted by
sulkair
If you look at the Mock Bid - it is clear KDEN will absolutely be available to new hires.It's only a mock bid and doesn't take into account what speed the company plans to grow other domiciles.
I count 91 current FOs leaving Denver whether to upgrade out or just transfer out as FO, and 2 coming in. Net loss of 89.
The mock bid 'totals page' only shows a net reduction of 46 FO's for Denver by end of year.
This necessitates a backfill of 43 newhire FO's ...89 - 46 = 43 newhires will come into Denver as backfill between now and end of 2015 Anyone who get's assigned DEN out of class will necessarily be at the bottom of the seniority list, and be the first to be displaced if/when that has to happen. I don't think anyone will be assigned DEN; the company will just accelerate the VSAs for other domiciles.
Granted it's a Mock bid. But assuming it's even only 50% correct, that still requires newhire back fill into Denver which will continue until every FO that has any inclination to upgrade has already done so out of Denver and the only ones left are the senior papas & mamas. That will be a while.
Now if you want to make the case for a drastic slashing of Denver to a shadow of it's size, then YES, no-one will ever hold Denver... But, the mock bid isn't indicating that, and furthermore if they did do it, where are they going to put all these crews???? Considering the rate at which we're hiring, this would require making ORD and MCO very big, and / or a 4th base. In the near-term Denver is simply the only 'well' which can hold all these pilots at this time. Again, the mock bid was only to ask the preference of the pilots. It never said, "we're shrinking DEN to XXX number of lines, and XXX pilots, and growing ORD / MCO to XXX by ____date. What do you want to do WHEN you are no longer able to hold DEN?"
In the long run Denver will be senior in both seats, but for now, with only 3 bases and breakneck hiring, I strongly believe all bases will be available to newhire FO's within a bid period or two. Where you hold CA however is an entirely different story. (as we all know) The nice thing is that if a new hire is awarded DEN and displaced (rather than bidding for a VSA) they get moving expenses.
...
I'm willing to bet the $.04 I made on the MCO pool that there won't be new hires in DEN after MCO opens - beyond
MAYBE the first few classes hired immediately after MCO's opening, and MCO/ORD will grow A LOT quicker than most people think. I'm just trying to be realistic by following the facts at hand (moving expenses etc.). Shrinking DEN hurts me personally, so I'm not rooting for what I see happening to happen quicker.
For those interested - our contract calls for voluntary seniority adjustments ("I want to go to MCO!") followed by voluntary displacements ("I don't want to leave where I am, but if I have to I'll go to XXX"), and finally involuntary displacements (reverse seniority order "Here's where you have to show up for your next trip"). The union's position, and the company's past practice, says anything with the word displacement in it requires the company to cover moving costs, but that may become the latest battle over what the meaning of "is" is.