Well here's the deal. I'm an ART right now. I've been in the ART program almost 3 years. I came to the ANG from an AD Palace Chase transfer about 9 yrs ago when the majors weren't very stable and full-time Guard jobs, both AGR and ART, were few and far in between.
In the meantime, I took every temp-ART, temp-AGR, and/or MPA orders I could get until something opened up. Fast forward to 2012 and I finally landed one of a few ART jobs that began to open. A few AGR vacancies opened up afterward, but they ended up going to a few airline guys on mil leave trying to get a 20 yr AD retirement before going back to their company. We've had a few seasoned ART's bail to the airlines in the past year and most of us "new hires" from O-4 on down are beginning to get the airline bug also.
An AGR job was just advertised within the unit in the midst of me polishing up a few apps to the majors. I have about 4,000 points, but hesitate to apply and accept the position (if selected of course) if and when I get a call and get a job offer later on down the line with one of the majors I apply to. Whether it's a year from now or four, I'd like to have the option. Paying the bonus back is the least of my worries. I'd have no problem banking it for 5 yrs. My mil pay as an AGR would be about $15k higher per year than my ART/mil pay combined and I'd be financial comfortable enough to not have to blow the bonus.
I'm not so confident that the NGB is as worried as AFRC about the max exidus of full-timers amongst the ANG yet. I think their heads are in the sand IMO.