Ok,

If all the stars align just so, there may be a few 15 yr G4 Captains in 15 years.

A guy just a class senior to me was a 1011 f/o for 4.5 of our first 5 years.

He was the only one. It was nearly ten years before the rest of us got close to that, and then only for a few months.

Group 4 CA at 13 yrs is not a realistic expectation for the typical 2015 hire, at least not very many of them.

This years' hires will have good careers. Maybe even great ones. Especially if they are young.

I have just seen a lot of folks disillusioned and disappointed and bitter over too-optimistic career "projections".

Reality, and recognizing the outliers and risks, is better for folks.

Who here thinks we go 15 years without a recession, war, cabotage, retirement age increase or other career-changing external event?

AA parked an entire fleet of 707's one week.

It was 5 years before they ordered replacements.

I know... Couldn't happen.