Originally Posted by
Planetrain
I'll take a stab...
Your TA PS % is too high. $600M is too high. (definition change) The PTIX should be less $231M Management Incentive plan times whatever increase you think management will get for their performance in a year where they make $6B. Let's say it's a 30% raise. That would make PTIX $6B-($231Mx130%)=$5.7B. This means $570M PS.
If we get a raise of 14-21%, the wage pool increases by that amount for at least a third of us. But your wage pool is too low. It's closer to $5.5B. 1/3x$5.5Bx121%+$5.5B=$7.7B wage pool (for 2018 as an example)
$570M/$7.7B=7.7% not 15%
It's even less if the other employees get a raise.
So your 15% estimates for TA PS are too high.
Also, $950M/$5.5B=17.3%. So your C2012 PS is too high as well.
As a fact check, in 2014 we had a PS% of a little less than 17%. That was with a PTIX of $5.853B (before adjustments it was $4.5B as reported by press)
You may want to re run the total compensation numbers using a wage pool closer to actual. $4B is too low.
I agree the PTIX calculation for TA 2015 is high, I don't have the details on future Management compensation.
Our share of the wage pool is 37.5%. Corrected for future increase this could go up but we are 12500 of 80000 domestic employees, they will get raises to if their profit sharing is reduced.
Based on Q1 at $136M and Q2 at $400M profit sharing expense we are $536M for the first half of the year with the good quarters coming. This number outpaces the total 1.1B from last year by 22%.
These are all moving targets. Would you agree that the premises is correct. What would you use for wage pool numbers and profit sharing?