Originally Posted by
Probe
In a perfect airline management world, the company could have assigned the excess pilots that are being displaced into the new vacancies. Unfortunately they cannot.
Then DEN 76T base closing, according to Howie, will involve a few quick secondary and tertiary bumps. All the pilots that bumped to the 320 and 737 in DEN (Already overstaffed) will trigger new bumps until they get the number they want in DEN. The next bump, Captains will bump to DEN FO positions, and the final one, the FO's will get bumped out of DEN.
The pilots getting bumped get to choose where THEY want to go, not where the company needs them. The company needs about the same, or slightly fewer narrow body Capts than they have right now.
Fixing it is a bit of a mess, and time consuming. Worse, they will change their plan before the current situation is fixed.
But the current vacancies for narrow body captains is not Captain growth, just changing where the company wants the current pilots to be when all is said and done. Until they change their minds.
I believe there will be more bumps in DEN, but very few DEN 737/BUS Captains will bump into DEN FO (my opinion). They will bump to Captain elsewhere. This will mean that very few, IF ANY, DEN FOs will be bumped at all. So you have what....40ish FOs that recently became Captains thru displacement, plus 240 new Captain vacancies....minus however many IAH Captains bump to FO (majority will bump to Captain elsewhere). Still positive math. Captain growth. And look how junior the Captain bids went on the snapshot.....holy sheet! It's like 2000 all over again....only this time I hope it doesn't end in 2172 furloughs.
JMO,
Sled