Originally Posted by
sailingfun
None of the manning issues has anything to do with the TA. Just like the last TA the company is not planning any manning change from the TA. We lost in some areas on manning and gained in others. Delta has almost every year in a hiring cycle slowed the hiring in the summer months to maximize pilots flying the line. This year was worse because of marketing adding summer flying last Dec. The company did a emergency bump in the hiring last winter to keep the 757 staffed for the new hours. The net hiring plan for all of 16 has not changed one pilot. We will be overstaffed for the winter on many airframes with the huge reduction in winter block hours. The 757/767 fleet will drop 30%.
The great unknown at the moment is the fate of the 190's and additional 737's. The 190's would have required an additional 600 plus pilots for 50 airframes with hiring for those airframes to start late fall. Perhaps we will know tomorrow at the earnings call the plan for those airframes.
As 80kC says, the 190s and 73s were likely replacement aircraft. There was nothing in the TA that suggested otherwise.
BTW, do you think we bought two new 73n sims, one of which is a -900, for just another year or so of deliveries and the resultant CQ? Or do you think maybe there was a plan to buy more already?
Originally Posted by sailingfun
The drop in summer hiring is normal and will probably happen again next summer.
There is no "normal" right now.
Hiring was zero from 2011-2013.
In 2014, the hiring didn't seem to slow in summer. In fact, it looks like it increased:
- April: 70
- May: 80
- June: 125
- July: 85
- Aug: 70
- Sep: 70
- Oct: 65
Fact: DAL is 3 years behind in hiring. Their hiring shop was surprised when hiring froze in 2011, and even more surprised when hiring stayed frozen through 2013. It was an educated gamble by the company, a lot like fuel hedging, and they lost on it. Because of it, we've been running training overcapacity for the past year, buying sim time and instruction from other companies, and that time is becoming much more expensive with increased demand from other players.
Conjecture: The company needed hiring relief, and thought they had a sure thing in the TA. The unexpected grassroots organization to defeat those concessions surprised them. Unlike our MEC, I'm sure they have a plan B. In the meantime, I'd expect an uptick in hiring.