Originally Posted by
PVpilot
Word is based on current projections due to retirements, AC orders, and future growth that new hires can expect to be Captains within 5 years. Of course not all bases apply, but I agree it's very attainable. Wanted to throw it out there and see what others predict.
Thanks for the good laugh. Needed it after the last few days.
So.. Hired in '07 when we had 2 year upgrades (an anomaly). Currently 10100ish on the seniority list. Junior Capt is 8700ish. I'm roughly 1400 pilots away from most Junior Captain.
Based on 350 (senior) retirements a year.. I COULD see Captain in 4-5 years. [12yrs to Capt]
Reality-
Between now and then.. age 67 will probably happen. A major conflict somewhere in the globe will probably happen, and some sort of worldwide economical downturn will probably happen.
Figure out when you will be roughly 67% on the list. Only then can you actually plan on holding a Captain Bid that will probably raise your pay while lowering you QoL.*
It's a fun game to play. And Management will use it come Contract 2020 to lure FO's into voting YES. But the reality is.. don't plan on being a Captain for quiet a while.
Always
Motch
*IF we were to place an order for the CS100 or Eseries aircraft we will probably see 2-3 year Captains.
Based on 2016 payrates- you are looking at payrates between $128 - $139 for 2-12yrs.
Almost no pilot who will be on a longevity over 5 years will switch (except for the odd pilot who needs to wear 4 stripes, or is betting on overnights at home!)
And to bring it home- IF we see these aircraft sometime next year, it would be at least an $8 an hour paycut.. and more likely $45 an hour, for me and my fellow 07 hires.
On the other hand, someone hired during the beginning of the wave will be on 3-5 year pay. For them, it could be a slight raise.
That being said. Anyone hired this year or on will probably need more than 5 years to hold a worthwhile Capt Seat.
Just my opinion~