Originally Posted by
full of luv
I don't know, much more so in the 80's/90's as everybody grew during profits for "market share" only to shrink during the downturns.
If 1/4 of Delta gets furloughed, it will be tough for the whole industry.
What will kill the ULCC's is an oil price spike or sustained price raise because as oil becomes a bigger and bigger part of the casm, then the ULCC CASM get's closer and closer to the legacies as labor becomes more insignificant factor.
Hopefully this discussion is academic.
It is but I have to disagree with you again. CASM Ex will drive the conversation for the foreseeable future. When an airlines is in growth mode CASM is mostly flat or negative, which is why LUV was so successful for the past 25 years. If we are going to be taking on planes for the next 10 years we will recognize the benefit of that growth thus our CASM will be in a better position that others.
Currently NK CASM is around .055 compared to .085- .09 for everyone else. Even NK pilots were to could get a delta paying contract tomorrow our CASM would jump to around .06, mainly due to the growth # of seats, efficiency of the newer airplanes, and we outsource everything.