Originally Posted by
CabbiInbound
It’s entirely possible this is going to be a repeat of the whole Pinnacle situation but there are some significant differences in the industry today. When the Pinnacle situation occurred there were much fewer options for the pilots as there was far less hiring going on at the time, in addition, there were other providers who could have stepped in and absorbed the Pinnacle flying. Neither of those are true today.
From what I gather Republic is not only having trouble attracting new pilots, they’re struggling to keep the ones they have, hence the bonuses. If Republic just decided to throw the company into BK, that would mean the end of any chance of attracting new pilots. It would also make the trickle of pilots leaving now turn into a mad rush. Isn’t the whole reason Republic is offering this contract because they cannot staff the flying they have and as such are causing a major headache for DL/AA/UA? BK would exasperate this situation tremendously.
And that brings me to my other point, they can’t staff the flying the have right now, but who else could? Is there anyone out there now that could pick up Republic’s flying if they shut the doors tomorrow, or heck a year from now?
I agree that there’s something else going on here, my eyebrows definitely went up when I saw the new pay rates. But is it at least plausible that AA/DL/UA, seeing the hassle caused by the current staffing problems and knowing it would just be the tip of the iceberg if Republic went under, opened up their checkbook(s) and made some sort of adjustment to the current contracts which would then provide Republic the money to carry this new contract? Of course they could never say so, that would mean this is not the “last best offer”.
Long term it seems to me the majors are going to have to pony up more dough to their regional providers because they in turn are having to pay more to attract/retain enough pilots. It’s possible this is the first instance of such an adjustment taking place.
Maybe this will all turn out the way Pinnacle did. But while Pinnacle survived, and has decent long term prospects. I’m not sure I see viable long-term survival scenario for Republic via bankruptcy, and I think they know it. I think AA/DL/UA know it too.
Well... I think someone else can do the flying if Republic slowly goes the way of the Buffalo. It wouldn't be a "shut the doors overnight" scenario, it would take a couple years. Mesa, Compass, and Envoy all have 175 programs and Envoy especially is poised to take on more flying quicker than the others. And I've been looking at the PSA lines for next month and we are continuing to pick up more of your flying as well as mainline picking up some of it. I wish you all the best, but many of us on the outside looking in fear the ship may have already taken on too much water. Great FO pay rates don't mean a whole lot when there are airlines offering less than a 2 year upgrade. Year 2 CA pay is going to be better than year 10 FO pay no matter how you cut it.