Originally Posted by RedeyeAV8r
It is cyclical.............Although this is the worst downturn we have had in a while........
Remeber being an airline pilot in 1973? Oil prices doubled. Layoffs ensued.
1976 hiring rebounded somewhat
1979 Oil prices doubled, Deregulation was under way and more lay offs ensued.
1984 the Hiring Boom began..........1991 Gulf war 1 lay offs ensued.........
1995 Hiring resumed................Another hiring boom
Then 2001........911 slowing, economy higher oil prices,9/11, Gulf war #2.
Layoffs ensued.
The tide will come in again..............MGT has had the opportunity to Gut many hard fought for labor contracts and thousands of employees have suffered and paid a heavy price. Once all the restructuring is complete, yes unfortunately they may be another bankruptcy, or two. But the tide will change and the hiring boom will begin again........granted, the pay and benefits won't be what they once were. At that point there won't be enough qualified pilots.............just like in 1975, 1984 and 1995................seems to run in a 10 year cycle...............we are due for the upswing.
I agree with what you have said but it has still been a continuous downward slide in benefits and pay. Hiring will pick up but is seems unlikely that we will regain any lost ground. Times are different in aviation then in the past. Today not only do we have the onslaught of regionals and LCC's hiring 600 hour wonders strait into the right seat of a modern jet but unlike any other time in aviation virtually anyone can throw down 100K and become a commercial pilot. It is common to see 40 year old job changers in flight school these days. In the 70's if you were past 30 it was to bad for you. Overweight or coke bottle glasses was also a disqualifier that is now gone. The industry is flooded with high jet time low experienced people who are here just for the personal satisfaction of the job. The results are a changed pilot group of low expectation aviation religion following door mats. Why would any company offer to pay any more when they have this growing ocean of desperate hopeful employees? The pay keeps dropping as the tide of new pilots keeps rising. I feel that in 10 years the decay will have reached every corner of the industry.
In my generation we flew because we enjoyed the job but also because we could earn a better income and have a better life than most. Back then is was very difficult to pay for the ratings as a civilian and then to acquire the basic experience needed to tempt a major. The military was much smaller and wasn't creating many new pilots. The airlines had strict hiring requirements that included age limits, weight and vision limits, two day medicals and psychological testing. Pilots had to know what they were doing and real pilot experience was valued. All that is gone and will likely never return. In kind I don't think the good times that we remember will ever return either.
SkyHigh