Concur. If you figure the average squadron has 18-36 pilots, depending on single seat or dual seat, and the number of squadrons over there, you're only talking a couple hundred dudes, and of that, figure at least half or more will stay in to retire or try to, statistically minor compared to the numbers of guys the airlines are projected to hire the next few years.
Also, guys will get out to avoid going back, won't necessarily get out immediately upon return.