Originally Posted by
FlameNSky
Yes, that would be true if we had hired an evenly distributed number of pilots each and every month, which is not the case, at any airline, ever. We have very few pilots hired between late 2008 and 2010 and then again from early 2012 to now. A pilot hired today could easily be upgrading or flow just a few month after a pilot hired years ago due to these gaps.
But since you asked, here are some ruff numbers:
We just had a vacancy putting our most junior CA at 10/2007 -- 8 years
Next year they have conservatively announced they will upgrade 220 CAs. That will make the most junior CA 12 month from now a July 2010 new hire. And that is assuming no other attrition or growth. Considering these two factors, I would guess that in 12 months from now, we will have a October 2010 new hire. In ones years, time the upgrade will drop from 8 years to 6 years.
When you look at AA retirements, they are going to be retiring 600 - 800 a year for the foreseeable future. That means in addition to the 300 - 400 FTs next year, there will be another 300 - 400 in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 etc etc. Even if envoy shrinks, there will be somewhere around 250-300 upgrade in 2017. That would make the most junior CA two years from now a July to October 2011 new hire. Still steady at 6 years due to the large hiring during late 2010 to late 2011.
But this is where the magic happens. There was not much hiring after 2011. As AA continues to hire and guys flow over to AA, there will be another 250 (conservative estimate) flowing to AA in 2018. That is another 250 upgrades. The most junior CA an early 2014 new hire. 4 year upgrade.
There are only 100 pilots junior to a May 2014 on our seniority list today. That means that a pilot hired today would upgrade in early 2019. And these are conservative numbers. We still have Captains/FOs getting hired by United, Delta, JetBlue, Spirit, Virgin America. That is where Ric Wilson's 2.5 year upgrade projections come from. While I agree his projects are on the low side, I do think that a new hire today can expect to upgrade between 2.5 to 3.5 years from today and flow to AA in a 6 to 7 year time frame.
These numbers also don't take into consideration that all of Parker's Lowest Bidder Contract Regionals are not able to staff their ASAs and flying is returning to envoy. A 50% increase in block flying done today is coming in the next few month. More Flying + Senior Flowing CAs + Normal experienced CA/FO attrition = a good time to get in on the front side of the wave at envoy.
Fleet projections have only been going up as RAH and Mesa have been unable to staff their flying or run on time. Those fleet projections will only be going up as these companies find it harder to staff their flying. Or someone could go to RAH while they figure out their CBA, bankruptcy and what will happen when they cannot staff their obligations to the mainlines. Or someone could go to PSA who have a large number of low time CAs that will be flying there for years before they are competitive for the Majors. Not to mention their low time FO that still don't qualify for upgrade, then when they do upgrade, they will take years to get the experience to be competitive for mainline jobs. Currently competitive hiring experience at United is 7,000 TT/4,000 PIC. How long will a 2,000 hour PSA new hire take to get that kind of experience at 700 hours a year? Mesa isn't much better.
On top of all that, a new hire today doesn't have to wait around for the flow. They can still apply at United, Delta or whoever and take other opportunities as they come along. I would guess though, as it becomes harder and harder to staff their regional flying, AA will other greater incentives such as increase flow to attract new hires to it's regionals.
A lot is going to be happening in the industry during the next decade. Many assumptions and variables. To me, it seems safe to file a route well clear of the weather and look for direct to your destination if you can rather than risking your career to picking through the buildups. You will probably make it through eventually either way but life really sucks when you are stuck in a sucker hole.
Good post. Agreed.
It's amazing how people can't see past "current" upgrade and flow times, because they are COMPLETELY irrelevant to what a new hire will experience. When I was hired projections were 3-4 years, went to 10+ With age 65, still had flowbacks, and losing Aircraft plus other problems, then it went back down to as low as 6. We had years without hardly any hiring now since later in 08, which will shorten a newhires timeframe significantly when those big gaps are jumped again, new hires aren't going through the lost decade either and have NEVER seen movement off the top/middle as high as 300-400+ A YEAR!!
Upgrade was 10 years right before my upgrade.. But there was such a gap in hiring over the years (similar to what a new hire will experience) that my upgrade time jumped all the way down to around 6.5yrs just due to hiring gaps and getting here on the FRONT end of an 800 pilot hiring wave, even with the bankruptcy and losing tons of aircraft. The guys on the back end of that hiring wave are the ones suffering more back at around 8yrs again.. That is what happens when you get hired behing 600-700 people in a year period. That is a TON of people to upgrade ahead of you, especially when things start to slow, and what these other upgrade mill carriers will be dealing with shortly. The suckers going there still now just don't realize it yet.
There is NO way for a new hire to have an 8 year upgrade here (barring another major disaster) if we continue to lose 400+ pilots a year due to flow and outside attrition. (Which we are doing. Easily) Even with more shrinkage.. And as the 175's start coming in the shrinkage is coming to a stop. We have only 2030 pilots, almost a couple hundred of them are inactive, working in training center, management, mil leave or on sick leave. Junior CA award today is #1206 out of 2030 pilots. Upgrades stay around 60% on the seniority list. Do the simple math. 2030 - 400+/yr attrition ahead of you leaving. How many years until you hit the 60% mark to upgrade? Even estimating if we shrink more and junior CA goes from current #1206 down to #900 or so in a couple years..
I bet attrition next year is closer to 500 anyway with the amount of hiring everywhere. We have Higher attrition than any other regional on the planet right now. 300ish flowing, handful of retirements, and 180 or so junior CA and FO's to other LCC and Majors is EASILY doable next year, then the always reliable junior FO upgrade chasers that will leave on top of that. That is 25% of our pilots gone in just 1 yr.