Originally Posted by FlameNSky

Yes, that would be true if we had hired an evenly distributed number of pilots each and every month, which is not the case, at any airline, ever. We have very few pilots hired between late 2008 and 2010 and then again from early 2012 to now. A pilot hired today could easily be upgrading or flow just a few month after a pilot hired years ago due to these gaps.

But since you asked, here are some ruff numbers:

We just had a vacancy putting our most junior CA at 10/2007 -- 8 years

Next year they have conservatively announced they will upgrade 220 CAs. That will make the most junior CA 12 month from now a July 2010 new hire. And that is assuming no other attrition or growth. Considering these two factors, I would guess that in 12 months from now, we will have a October 2010 new hire. In ones years, time the upgrade will drop from 8 years to 6 years.

When you look at AA retirements, they are going to be retiring 600 - 800 a year for the foreseeable future. That means in addition to the 300 - 400 FTs next year, there will be another 300 - 400 in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 etc etc. Even if envoy shrinks, there will be somewhere around 250-300 upgrade in 2017. That would make the most junior CA two years from now a July to October 2011 new hire. Still steady at 6 years due to the large hiring during late 2010 to late 2011.

But this is where the magic happens. There was not much hiring after 2011. As AA continues to hire and guys flow over to AA, there will be another 250 (conservative estimate) flowing to AA in 2018. That is another 250 upgrades. The most junior CA an early 2014 new hire. 4 year upgrade.

There are only 100 pilots junior to a May 2014 on our seniority list today. That means that a pilot hired today would upgrade in early 2019. And these are conservative numbers. We still have Captains/FOs getting hired by United, Delta, JetBlue, Spirit, Virgin America. That is where Ric Wilson's 2.5 year upgrade projections come from. While I agree his projects are on the low side, I do think that a new hire today can expect to upgrade between 2.5 to 3.5 years from today and flow to AA in a 6 to 7 year time frame.

These numbers also don't take into consideration that all of Parker's Lowest Bidder Contract Regionals are not able to staff their ASAs and flying is returning to envoy. A 50% increase in block flying done today is coming in the next few month. More Flying + Senior Flowing CAs + Normal experienced CA/FO attrition = a good time to get in on the front side of the wave at envoy.

Fleet projections have only been going up as RAH and Mesa have been unable to staff their flying or run on time. Those fleet projections will only be going up as these companies find it harder to staff their flying. Or someone could go to RAH while they figure out their CBA, bankruptcy and what will happen when they cannot staff their obligations to the mainlines. Or someone could go to PSA who have a large number of low time CAs that will be flying there for years before they are competitive for the Majors. Not to mention their low time FO that still don't qualify for upgrade, then when they do upgrade, they will take years to get the experience to be competitive for mainline jobs. Currently competitive hiring experience at United is 7,000 TT/4,000 PIC. How long will a 2,000 hour PSA new hire take to get that kind of experience at 700 hours a year? Mesa isn't much better.

On top of all that, a new hire today doesn't have to wait around for the flow. They can still apply at United, Delta or whoever and take other opportunities as they come along. I would guess though, as it becomes harder and harder to staff their regional flying, AA will other greater incentives such as increase flow to attract new hires to it's regionals.

A lot is going to be happening in the industry during the next decade. Many assumptions and variables. To me, it seems safe to file a route well clear of the weather and look for direct to your destination if you can rather than risking your career to picking through the buildups. You will probably make it through eventually either way but life really sucks when you are stuck in a sucker hole.