Originally Posted by
FirstClass
lol, I can't wait to see the look on your face when the flow starts having "operational problems". Whatever, enjoy it while you got it, I would. But remember, you have to figure out a way to get the suckers to keep showing for new hire school to make all your flow dreams come true.
I keep hearing that if new hires quit showing up, AA will slam the brakes on the flow. In a scenario where every regional is shrinking because pilots are leaving for better jobs, do you really think AA would be dumb enough to kill the flow? Think about what would happen if they did.
If I'm an Envoy pilot in that scenario, and let's say I've got 4 years invested in the company (and 4,000+ hours in my logbook), I know I could move on to jetBlue, Spirit, Frontier, or basically a multitude of other "good" flying jobs (corporate, air ambulance, cargo, etc.). The only thing keeping me at Envoy, at that point, is the expectation to be at AA soon. Do you think AA is going to stare down the few regional pilots they have and say, "we know we promised you'd flow, but now we're having operational difficulties, so you'll have to wait. But please stick around making $70K/year because we're nice guys and we'll start it up again soon."
Do you think they'd want their regional network to crumble? Because that's how you'd get your regional network to crumble.
Guys would start leaving so fast, the operation, which is already struggling without new hires, would be in disarray. The point I'm getting at is that regional feed is becoming extremely valuable. Keeping your regional pilot workforce happy is becoming extremely valuable.
So many of the doom and gloomers are stuck in the paradigm of the lost decade. Management was able to use and abuse pilots, and shifted flying constantly. Those days are over. There are far more jobs than there are pilots. They are going to start treating us like the valuable commodity that we are. It's already started, and the retirements are still just a fraction of what they will be.
In the Envoy (and Piedmont, and PSA) situation, I think rather than slamming the brakes on the flow, if the wholly owned carriers are unable to hire, mainline will bring the regional aircraft onto their certificates. If they want to keep their RJ's flying, and they want to keep RJ pilots showing up to fill classes, they will give you a mainline job to do it. I think this scenario is probably at least 5 years away, but that's how I predict the regional pilot shortage will be solved.