True. I should've said, "all else remaining equal/unchanged". But no one can predict that kind of thing with any accuracy. Not much a pilot can do about it one way or another, except to avoid the profession altogether. You pay your dues and take your chances. I've heard that most senior wide-body CA's can thank lucky timing vs. anything else for their seats. Don't know if that's true or not but it's what I've heard from a few of them anyway. YMMV