Attrition > new hires isn't too far off. I went up 12 spots globally this month (my avg since DOH has been around 10), and a third of the seniority list is behind me. I know FOs behind me are quitting at an increasing rate, too. We have been hovering around 1200 total for some time. We are fat now (but still holding back ejet FOs, so guessing they aren't fat), but that can turn to "short" very quickly. Especially when he announces a handful of new jets and we need to staff more.

I know people at Mesa have been saying for a while that a shortage will happen and we won't fill classes, and it hasn't happened yet, but when it does this place is going to derail. Could be 6 months, could be a year, could be 3-5 as our flying contracts are up for renewal. I hope I'm not around to deal with the train wreck that will ensue. This is a house of cards. I don't think mesa will necessarily turn out the lights (never does), but shrinkage isn't out of the question (e.g. UAL will decrease more 700s over the next 5 years...I'd be surprised if we are still flying UAX CR7s beyond 5 years).

Short term I think we will grow a little bit more and be ok as we dupe more new hires into thinking they will be johnny ejet captain in a year. Then we will plateau and it will start to get painful.

1) More flying with advertised (but unrealistic for new hires today) quick upgrades, or 2) an industry standard contract, would prolong maintaining acceptable staffing levels. The latter would have a longer lasting positive impact. But we don't need that right now in JO's eyes so we won't get it anytime soon. Hell, he wants turnover to be high here to keep labor costs down. Every day, we are closer to the shortage, and the closer to the shortage we are, the more leverage we will get. Could be a year, could be more. I'll wait. Better than caving to this POS and locking it in for another 5-8+ years.

I stole this from another thread, but (due to ALPA's rhetoric with most of the crappy TA's of late, especially at the majors) we seem to negotiate bad deals in the good times (record profits) for the bad times that are right around the corner, and we negotiate bad deals during the bad times because we are in the bad times. We never have and never will have a "good" negotiating climate. We have to deal with that, identify it, and work through it.

Our negotiating climate will be as good or better than it was over the last couple years. They need us more than we need them (any one of us can hand pick which regional to go to...hasn't been the case for a while). We can leave after a year or two and cover our seniority reset with higher pay elsewhere. Mainline partners are making record profits. Mainline will pay regionals more when regionals as a whole cant staff (barring age 67/1500 hr rule changing). Other than RAH, there aren't a lot of cancelations due to crew shortages. Yet. At some point pay will have to continue to rise to remain a viable regional to attract and retain pilots. Some airlines have figured that out and are trying to be proactive in managing that reality. JO is rolling the dice that he can hold off.