Originally Posted by
deepwater
Per ALPA LEC "...Future of the Airline – The airline has changed significantly over the last six months. Envoy has gone from being completely understaffed to being overstaffed and offering zero time lines. At the end of 2015, Envoy will have shrunk by 62 aircraft compared to the beginning of the year. However, as stated in previous letters by Management, Envoy is scheduled to only shrink by an additional 6 aircraft at the end of 2016. This is welcomed news for the employees of Envoy because it means the airline will remain relatively stable for the next year. However, there are still significant hurdles Envoy Management will need to overcome; three years of bad news after bad news affecting Envoy has created considerable negative momentum for our carrier. While it appears Envoy could be at the bottom of that trajectory, it will take a concerted effort and action on Managements part to improve morale at the airline and make Envoy a desirable destination for new hire pilots.
OK, I read all this in a nutshell as;
Envoy went from understaffed to overstaffed due to contraction. Slated to temporarily slow that contraction for calendar 2016 by delaying previous aircraft transfers which will still occur. Envoy still has poor morale and is at present a questionable "destination" for new-hire pilots, but just months ago when things were supposedly worse, an LEC rep reaffirmed that "it's a good time to be an Envoy pilot". Was that the truth or simply a self-serving sales pitch ?
Originally Posted by
deepwater
Fleet Plan – While Management could not release a specific fleet plan, they did explain some positive changes to our future fleet. The transfer of the 20 EMB-145’s to Piedmont is now scheduled to begin in January at 1 aircraft per month. As previously announced, the transfer of our remaining CRJ-700’s has been delayed until the last half of 2016 at a much slower rate than originally advertised. Chris Pappaioanou stated that the EMB-145’s that were transferred to Trans-States could come back to Envoy as early as late next year as the contract per aircraft expires when each aircraft is scheduled for its next C-Check. There are similar provisions for the EMB-145’s transferred to ExpressJet. Mr. Pappaioanou also indicated it’s possible for Envoy to once again operate those aircraft depending on our cost and performance.
Again, transfers still to occur, but delayed (note: following years fleet plan and operating plans for AA and AAG regionals usually released in October). Poses possibility of reacquisition of some older aircraft.
Originally Posted by
deepwater
Flow Through – AAG has publicly announced it will require 300 flow through pilots from Envoy as it plans to hire 600 total pilots at AA in 2016. The process for selecting your base and equipment at AA as a new hire has changed slightly and the Association is getting clarification on those changes. The Association has also presented a solution to Management to allow flow through pilots the option to defer a class if they cannot hold their preference of either L-AA or L-US selection. More information will be forthcoming when it’s available.
600 new-hires at AA. A modest number perhaps double that of retirees. The wildcard of X number of returning Letter T pilots (deferred furloughees) could complicate that projection depending on number to return (due to begin accept recall or be removed from AA seniority list in May 2016) and total number of "new" pilots wanted or needed at AA next year. The 600 new-hire figure could be reduced depending on impact of Letter T (of which the AA/U SLI result will have a significant impact).
Originally Posted by
deepwater
Recruitment – Ric Wilson reiterated that Envoy will need 400 new hire pilots between now and the end of next year to properly staff the airline. He also stated there has been an increase in applications, with 28 new hire pilots in August and 12 new hire pilots in September beginning their careers at Envoy. Mr. Wilson also acknowledged the hurdle in getting 400 new hire pilots in this time frame. While Envoy Management has approached AAG with many ideas on ways to attract new hire pilots, those ideas cost money and AAG is not currently willing to entertain those additional costs. Instead, AAG will rely on Envoy’s flow through programs as a major attractant in recruiting new hires.
Hmmm.........
Envoy is to remain "stable" in 2016 and 300 will flow to AA (theoretically) and will need 400 new-hires. That means Envoy only expects 100 pilots to leave Envoy for other jobs in 2016, a figure I find hard to believe. So, either Envoy will need MORE then 400 or they are planning on some contraction later in the year. That's not good for upgrades and advancement. Additionally, one wonders how the E-175 training bubble will hold and not burst putting pressure on management (and scheduling) to keep the Envoy engine running under these assumptions and projections. That could negatively impact pilot QWL and contract compliance (already a joke), especially in Summer.
I'm not convinced serious backfiring of the Envoy engine won't start by Summer 2016.
Originally Posted by
deepwater
E-175 Program – The E-175 program is progressing on schedule. Roughly 95% of the paperwork, checklists and behind-the-scenes work have been completed. Also, several hundred of our Flight Attendants have been trained on the aircraft. The first set of E-175 line pilots will begin training next week. Between now and the first revenue flight in February, E-175 crews will be completing IOE, operating proving runs, and building experience in the aircraft.
Sounds good. Schedule likely to start on-time, but the focus will be on smooth E-175 ops and so that may put undue pressure on the E-145/CRJ ops if attrition wigs out staffing in disproportionate places and that doesn't bode well for pilots QWL, especially next Summer when it's usually stressed to the max. Envoy will need more pilots in the pipeline then the 33/month they claim to need, which BTW is a TOUGH number to do each and every month nowadays. Actually, they'll need more to avoid problems IMO, perhaps at least 40/month, each and every month.
We shall see.
Originally Posted by
deepwater
Envoy Performance & Additional Block Hours – AAG has taken notice and is pleased with Envoy’s recent operating performance. Mr. Pappaioanou stated that over the last 3 months Envoy has taken on additional flying from AAG without harming operational performance. Envoy will continue flying more block hours than originally scheduled throughout the rest of the year; 2,000 additional hours each for September, October, and November and 3,000 additional hours in December. The increase in block hours is welcomed news as it keeps Envoy relatively flat on its schedule versus the original plan to continue shrinking. In October of each year, AAG formulates it plans on block hours for each FFD operator for the following year. Mr. Wilson stated that he will inform the pilot group when this plan is received from AAG and he believes we could see additional good news. LEC 083 Vice-Chairman Kyle Flynn emphasized that pilots should continue to put forth their best effort to improve Envoy’s performance numbers as to make Envoy more attractive for potential additional flying..."
Of course Envoy can take on additional ops as they are admittedly overstaffed for NOW. They hope for more commitment from AAG for next year based on present situation, but AAG is not likely to simply get itself into the same position with Envoy mid-late next year as they are with Republic today, so expect some flexibility options. Envoy needs at least 40 pilots/month to truly maintain stability and that's based on the 25 flows/month to AA projections for 2016. That's an even tougher number then 33 to do each and every month.