Originally Posted by
ToiletDuck
Nothing you said is correct. Upgrade is sitting around 2yrs currently and that is expected to hold for awhile. The aircraft/certificate/base preference have nothing to do with how fast you upgrade. We are one a master seniority list. Regardless of which certificate you're on you'll upgrade just as fast.
Dude, did you read this before you typed it???? So you're telling me that if I put on my standing bid that I only want 170 CA DCA, that has nothing to do with my upgrade time? BS!
Yes, the upgrade time is between 2 years, 2 months if you put every base and every piece of equipment on your standing bid. If you only want a certain base, certain piece of equipment, or some combination thereof, as many, many FO's do, then you're looking at longer, up to 3 years longer depending on what you're holding out for.
Originally Posted by
ToiletDuck
Also there are roughly 1900 pilots currently. Don't know where that 1000 figure came from.
That's EXACTLY where the 1000 came from. If there are 1900 pilots, you've got around 1,000 in front of you for upgrade! Which leads to Sharky's point, the most valid, but for some reason most overlooked in upgrade predictions, current time of most junior ca is about as useful a piece of information as my dog's shoe size. The best way to predict upgrade for a newhire is to look at the number of fo's in front of you and divide by the monthly rate of attrition, then you can factor in any variables you'd like to gamble on, such as market swings, growth, J4J guys leaving, etc.
I'm willing to bet you a handsome wager that you'll still be an FO 2.5 years from now, even if you bid all bases, all equipment. Not that there's anything wrong with that, I'm very happy here.