Originally Posted by
ToiletDuck
That wasn't what I was aiming for. It should go without saying that the only thing you can bank on is what is current and that's it. If I say upgrades are 2-2.5yrs that's because that IS what they are. To say anything else is just an assumption based on nothing which has no relevance.
See my post above. Actually, longevity of the most junior captain, which is what you're quoting and calling "the only thing you can bank on," is the "assumption based on nothing which has no relevance(SIC)." The only thing that is useful for predictive purposes is # of FO's divided by current attrition, if you want to use "current" numbers with no assumptions thrown in.
Also, just to point out another inaccuracy in your previous posts, there are NOT less pilots now than there were last month.