It will be very interesting to see the bifurcation as a result of this program.

Some will strive to maximize the SLB benefit. A certainty.

But there will be others who decide that rather than fly for 50 cents on the dollar, now that it's a form of remuneration, they'll use it at 100c on the dollar. And they will feel more justified in so doing. Then they'll turn around and fly draft in the remainder of the time at 150 cents on the dollar. Not right - I know.

More pilots will leave with a full sick bank or an empty sick bank. Not as many in the middle as we have now.

I expect the cost of STD will be an indicator of how many go one way, and how many the other.

You burn sick bank and disability bank first. Then you dig into STD. If the pilots in the second category outnumber the first group, STD will go up as they go into that status nearly a year earlier than if they'd had a full sick bank. Eventually the corporation might see a sustained bump in LTD depending on the ratio.

I'm surprised how many pilots we have in STD and LTD. If more pilots go the first way than the second, the cost to the company will be partially offset by the reduced cost of disability payments. The converse is also true.

This is subject to the vagaries of my memory. I haven't cracked the TA to research this. I'm sure any deficits in my memory and guesses about human behavior will be remedied by others.

I don't critique the SLB program. But it won't be the boon some anticipate, because of the behavior of the second group.

I do expect more crew members will insist the guy with the sniffles call in sick. That could diminish reliability.

On balance I wonder if the law of unintended consequences will negate the intentions.