To point out one of several inaccuracies in your post I never said there are less pilots now than there were last month. My # was greater when I was hired than there are current pilots. You can't bank anything on attrition. That could change tomorrow. Predictions are useless. I wasn't predicting at all. You keep missing the boat on that one. If you look at CURRENT data. it isn't 4yr upgrade. So if you take into account that my answer was a no assumption based answer then your whole little rant is completely misplaced. Current upgrades do not support the previous statements. Everyone can argue what they "think" will happen. All I hear is how there's a thousand pilots here yet you just said you can only base it on attrition which means that if we keep losing them at current rates then I'd still be right on schedule. There is no evidence, as of yet, that supports the claims being made. You've got guys retiring faster than ever in the majors, the J4J guys leaving, company expansion, and current attrition that states otherwise. However I'm not naive enough to think those things can't change which is why i try not to argue the future. The problem is some of you get on here and state it as fact which simply isn't true.