I believe our crew force will decline. I think the TA has some efficiencies in it.

Number 1...PBS is said to be 30-50% more efficient for an airline. Adding 20% reserve lines into VTO means our lines will be about 5% more efficient for the company.

Number 2...allowing VTO holders (and there will be more than now--see #1) to pick the amount of vacation hours to use. Let's say one quarter of the pilots save their 40% buyback. That's another 10% efficiency within the secondary line system for another few percent overall.

Number 3...8-24 change for daytime flights allows more efficient scheduling too. Another percent or two.

Number 4...the new system bid system allows the company to more finely tune the pilot seat positions allowing us to have fewer pilots. For example, Airbus F/O may be overmanned by 10 pilots who suck up reserve/VTO lines and don't fly. MD-11 F/Os are short 10. Company can fix this easily. And they just don't offer a training slot to those it doesn't want to move yet for pretty cheap slot denial payments when compared to the cost of adding a new pilot to property. I can't really estimate this capability...1% efficiency gain, 7% gain????

And I'm sure there's a percent or two elsewhere that hasn't struck me as I'm writing this. I've come up with 8-10% increased efficiencies. That's the number less pilots we need. So 400 some less under this TA--for the same amount of flying!

Wow...savings to the company are huge. Guess we paid for that initial raise and then some!

We were short to begin with...maybe 100 or more. So, I would think, if the amount of flying stays the same we would stabilize on 3900 pilots.

What do others think?