Originally Posted by
Rock
I think it is too early to count on the TNT deal going through, but I suspect that would increase our manning requirements. Checks in the mail on that one though. Which is true of all our best guesses on future manning.
As a sidenote though, I would say that it is inconsistant to argue we will continue to be able to use manning (or lack of) as leverage in future negotiations, while also arguing that manning is going to decrease in the future. Raptor, I realize your predictions are based on the TA passing, but let's say the TA fails and so does the TNT deal. Is manning going to increase or decrease in the next year or two?
I would say manning increases by 100. Hiring for that 100 plus some unknown as I haven't looked at retirements. Will people hold off because of tasting a new bonus in TA 2, or will we have a hundred extra go in disgust?
I think the company has a manning shortage and amount of flying is fairly stable.
I think TNT will go through. See articles posted in main cargo forum. Ups lawsuit is to make it difficult for us and to gain some leverage to get pieces we may have to divest. European Commission remedies and investigation are underway mainly because of UPS lawsuit so they can say they are equally tough on our bid for TNT.
TNT is dying because they don't have the mass. If EC doesn't let this go through, it will end up putting nail in coffin of TNT. Therefore, all of this is just posturing and while it may delay a bit or cause some asset sales, it should still happen. Note that EC major problem isn't with express packages, but with concentration in some markets with normal cargo movement (think FedEx Freight).
We will know come mid January when EC rules.