7-10 years at a regional is a safe guess... to have a good shot off the street you will need several thousand TPIC hours and check airman experience which you can't get in three years. Also don't forget age 65.

This might come down in a few years, but only if the economy and airline industry stays strong.

A few factors might get you time off from your regional sentence...

- Knowing someone really significant.
- Many senior regional captains passing on the opportunity due to pay/QOL issues. Maybe. A whole lot of regional guys repeat this mantra like a broken record...while they furiously apply and interview at every major in the country (plus Emirates and Cathay). They do a 180 the instant they get the good news... We'll have to wait for hiring to pick up to see how many stay voluntarily.