Originally Posted by
Slick111
I've been thinking a lot about this TA and I feel compelled to chime in on it and think outside the box a little bit.
My initial reaction to the TA was "Sure, I'll vote for it! The company is giving up things and not asking for anything in return!" Pretty good deal!!"
But then the cynic in me started asking "why". Why is the company seemingly giving us a better quality of life, a better flow-through to mainline, no captain pay cap short of 12 years, and other nicey-nice things,......... and they're not asking for anything in return?
First, you have to realize that Dougie and his minions never give away ANYTHING ,.......... unless they're getting MORE in return. And what "more" could Dougie be angling for in this TA? The answer is more cheap regional pilots to fly more of his CRJ 900s, at lower wages than he would have to pay if he was forced to bring those shiny new $65 million 900s in-house.
So it struck me that Dougie could give us (current pilot group) a lot more if he wants us to give him a contract that allows him to retain and attract "more" cheap pilots to his cheap regional airline(s).
I also began giving a lot of thought to what would happen if we voted this TA down and mainline didn't come back and sweeten the pot. Here's what I came up with. Most pilots in the upper half of the seniority list have been moving up 4-5 spots every month,..... mostly because so many of the guys ahead of them are waiting around for their turn to flow to mainline. And if the TA passes the flow should be 7/month by the end of 2016. So at 7/month, (assuming the top 75 don't flow and assuming 1 additional pilot in the top half moves on to another airline every month), seniority pilot number 400 can reasonably expect a move to mainline in 41-49 months.
If, however, the TA does not pass,....... those same top 400 or 500 pilots who were waiting to flow to AA are going to be a lot more active in terms of applying to other employers; Delta, United, Southwest, jetBlue, Spirit, Frontier, Virgin, UPS, FedEx, Polar, Southern, Netjets, Flexjets, XOJet, and others. And if Delta and United get their wish and get to add a bunch of E-190s and/or CS100/300s, the PSA/PDT/ENY exodus will be much worse!
Suddenly, seniority pilot #400, 500, 600, 700, etc. could find themselves moving up the seniority list at the same pace they would have if the TA had passed,.... maybe quicker! And where does that leave Dougie?!?! With pilots bailing out and no one to backfill.
So, bottom line,....... if the TA does not pass,........ Dougie (and Dion) will have to do better.
I think I'm going to be a "no" vote.