There are two "truths" in this article: There is a "shortage" of pilots (willing to work for crap wages) and there are no straight out replacements for timed-out 50 jets because none are being produced. Aircraft will have to get bigger because they have to. However, you're telling me most of Middle America will either lose service altogether or it'll just be done by mainline? This line of thinking assumes that there will be no other change in economics or behavioral factors on the part of the passenger/consumer. Will Mr. Jones decide not to take his family to Hawaii because he doesn't want to drive 4 hours to the nearest airport? What if oil prices spike back up? What if there's another housing bubble pop? (Wait, not what if, when) What happens when load demand decreases again and you're depending evermore on business travellers, and you can't fill a 737-800 twice a day MSP-BIS but your competitor is still running small planes with more frequency? Or the billion dollar quarters evaporate and your legacy decides it can no longer afford to subsidize $150 an hour for a 175 Captain?

Also, when pay goes up, macro economics teaches us that more people will chose the career field, thus increasing the supply towards the demand curve. All the lofty predictions of retirements outstripping current pilot numbers assume those numbers remain stagnant.

You know what's hard about predicting the course of this industry? Everything.