Originally Posted by
OnMyWay
Has AAG announced how they plan on filling the gap between the Q400 and the 738? I don't recall them saying anything about it. I'd be worried more about that. 28% savings is a huge chunk of change for QX, even with how cheap we are. I'm going to go tin hat here, but here's what I think the board at AAG is hoping for(obviously just a thought):
Get QX to cut 28%
Order an array of aircraft to cover the gap (Embraer 175s and 190s)
Place them at a regional to fly (notice how I didn't say just QX?)
Take a portion of the 28% savings and give the Alaska pilots some as a bribe to go along with this.
Every few years revisit the whipsaw to order more large regional jets to replace Alaska mainline flying.
All this is obviously hypothetical based on both pilot groups going along with this which is more far fetched than my above theory.
Fire away.
My opinion is mgmt doesn't think a 28% cut will happen (they would love to have it, but don't actually believe it will pass). But they have cleverly avoided the conversation about contractual improvements by talking about cuts. I think they want to secure a long-term contract now before the hiring gets really ugly so they don't lose the leverage they likely would when our contract is up in a few years. Still a win for them even if it isn't a "concession."
Don't see how E190's could be on Alaska property if they aren't flown by mainline. I know they contractually could do it, but they would be stepping on some big toes doing that. I sure hope I am not being overly optimistic about that. My bet is they'll fly the hell out of the E175.
I think whipsawing will be the new normal for Alaska small lift flying. Who can fly an E175 cheaper for Alaska - Skywest or Horizon? Trick question, the answer is BOTH. The long-term cost savings lie with Horizon being wholly-owned so it wouldn't surprise me to see the majority of the flying done by QX, but having Skywest around keeps Horizon in fear of being outsourced. It's a win either way for the company.
Alaska pilots are already being bribed to go along with this and have been for years. Every new contract they get that doesn't have scope means money was put on the table to keep that language out of it. Question is - why aren't Alaska pilots the best paid in the industry for not having scope? They're paying insurance money without having insurance.