Originally Posted by
SVA402
Just curious because I haven't looked in a while and am now trying to help someone getting out of the military plan their career... With all the hiring in the last couple years, would someone interviewing early 2016 be in an incredible position or have missed the ball a bit? Just looking at retirement numbers alone, where would someone end up if they started with 20 years of time left? How about 30 or 40 years? Thanks!
50% of the Big 3 pilots will have to retire by 2025. The big uptick starts around 2020 and it tapers by 2035. I think at least 75% of their pilots will be gone by then. I wouldn't be surprised to see 80%+ of the current lists gone by then. It's probably safe to assume the average retirement will be around 62.5, so move those years up a year or two if you want. This is based on no mainline growth as well.
I still think a fair amount of the new hires coming on board will retire in the 2025-2035 timeframe, so even someone getting on by 2025 will see good movement for 10 years after that. After 2035, well you are just going to have to wait until the mid-late 40's to see a chunk of this waive retire.