Originally Posted by emb145

I agree with this position. In a previous post above, I'm trying to get a serious response from Cujo instead of all the sales-y BS. At some point, it's going to happen. It's even happening right now, even with hiring the numbers Cujo posts. They aren't getting enough new hires. Do you really expect that to change in the future?

The 145's will continue to go away and at some point, the 700's may continue their transfer to PSA. Maybe not though as PSA has the same problems as Envoy, not enough new hires. If a future Envoy is 130ish planes, which is about the number I believe management wanted initially, then roughly a 1500 pilot corps is what would be needed. This would adequately staff the 40 175's, plus however many options, up to 90 eventually, as well as the remaining 145's to finish their life cycle over the next 5 or so years.

I'm sure the company plans to honor the 824 since it's a arbitrated decision and they are already halfway through with that number now. With the seniority list a bit under 2000 and with retirements (handful each year) and attrition (let's say 5% of the total list each year) over the next two years, getting Envoy down to 1500 with the 20 to 30 per month flowing will be something that happens in short order.

Especially with the anemic hiring numbers they are showing. I'm going to consider hiring numbers averaged throughout the year at 15 per month. That's 180 per year.

Let's say they flow 20 per month. 240 per year. Now, let's say 8 pilots leave each month via attrition. That's roughly 100 pilots each year. Let's figure another 4 per month via retirement and no longer being able to hold a medical. That's 48 pilots per year. Add all of these up and you have 388 pilots departing Envoy each year.

They are being replaced at 180 pilots per year. Let's look at year end 2016 with these numbers.

2000 Current seniority list
-388 Leaving 2016 via flow, attrition and retirement/medical/other
+180 New hires in 2016
= 1792 Total Pilots end 2016

Repeat for 2017
1792 Seniority list on 1/1/17
-388 Leaving 2017 via flow, attrition and retirement/medical/other
+180 New hires in 2017
= 1584 Total Pilots end 2017

With the numbers above, at the end of 2017 is where I think Envoy/AAG management wants to be with staffing numbers. 1584 pilots figuring 12 pilots per plane gives you 132 aircraft.

Maybe my new hire numbers are on the low side. I don't really know what they got in terms of total new hires in 2015 so far, but the numbers above could be adjusted if the new hire numbers are actually greater. I'm not even taking into consideration flowing 30 per month. Add that in if you like.

This is what I'm asking Cujo. What if these numbers are correct and you get right up to the point of flowing and it stops? Will you still be "selling" Envoy and the flow if that happens?