Originally Posted by
emb145
I agree with this position. In a previous post above, I'm trying to get a serious response from Cujo instead of all the sales-y BS. At some point, it's going to happen. It's even happening right now, even with hiring the numbers Cujo posts. They aren't getting enough new hires. Do you really expect that to change in the future?
The 145's will continue to go away and at some point, the 700's may continue their transfer to PSA. Maybe not though as PSA has the same problems as Envoy, not enough new hires. If a future Envoy is 130ish planes, which is about the number I believe management wanted initially, then roughly a 1500 pilot corps is what would be needed. This would adequately staff the 40 175's, plus however many options, up to 90 eventually, as well as the remaining 145's to finish their life cycle over the next 5 or so years.
I'm sure the company plans to honor the 824 since it's a arbitrated decision and they are already halfway through with that number now. With the seniority list a bit under 2000 and with retirements (handful each year) and attrition (let's say 5% of the total list each year) over the next two years, getting Envoy down to 1500 with the 20 to 30 per month flowing will be something that happens in short order.
Especially with the anemic hiring numbers they are showing. I'm going to consider hiring numbers averaged throughout the year at 15 per month. That's 180 per year.
Let's say they flow 20 per month. 240 per year. Now, let's say 8 pilots leave each month via attrition. That's roughly 100 pilots each year. Let's figure another 4 per month via retirement and no longer being able to hold a medical. That's 48 pilots per year. Add all of these up and you have 388 pilots departing Envoy each year.
They are being replaced at 180 pilots per year. Let's look at year end 2016 with these numbers.
2000 Current seniority list
-388 Leaving 2016 via flow, attrition and retirement/medical/other
+180 New hires in 2016
= 1792 Total Pilots end 2016
Repeat for 2017
1792 Seniority list on 1/1/17
-388 Leaving 2017 via flow, attrition and retirement/medical/other
+180 New hires in 2017
= 1584 Total Pilots end 2017
With the numbers above, at the end of 2017 is where I think Envoy/AAG management wants to be with staffing numbers. 1584 pilots figuring 12 pilots per plane gives you 132 aircraft.
Maybe my new hire numbers are on the low side. I don't really know what they got in terms of total new hires in 2015 so far, but the numbers above could be adjusted if the new hire numbers are actually greater. I'm not even taking into consideration flowing 30 per month. Add that in if you like.
This is what I'm asking Cujo. What if these numbers are correct and you get right up to the point of flowing and it stops? Will you still be "selling" Envoy and the flow if that happens?
Well, here is what I see happening (but you guys can go ahead and just brush off, bash, and accuse me of whatever because I work at PSA):
Envoy, PSA, and likely PDT will have a big staffing issue by the end of 2016 (and probably before then for PSA and Envoy). Many of the non-wholly owneds are now offering far superior pay packages and bonuses. All the wholly owneds really have to offer is the carrot of an eventual flow. That will likely change in the coming months, with both PSA and Envoy offering signing bonuses and paying for ATP courses etc... PDT will likely be able to hire for a while as they don't need to hire as many as PSA or Envoy.
The transfer of the Envoy 700s to PSA will likely slow even further. I hesitate to say they will stop altogether, because Doug and AAG has stated several times they want separate fleet types at the different wholly-owneds. And I do believe PSA will end up parking the 200s to take delivery of more 900s and the 700s. Our flow is essentially a joke, but it is what it is. Envoy and PDT offer a better path to AA right now.
Envoy will take on a lot more 175 flying over the next couple years. What happens at RAH next year will likely determine the timing of this. Envoy has had a rough couple years, but things will likely improve. Management will have to improve them if they want to staff.
PDT is the one I'm unsure of. They are getting 145s, sure... But what exactly will be AAGs long term plan considering 50 seat flying WILL go the way of the buffalo over the next 5 years? Who knows?
Overall, I think one of the 3 wholly-owneds is the best place to be over the next 5 years. The regional's will shrink, consolidate, and some may cease to exist altogether. I think being at Envoy, PSA, and PDT will be an added buffer from some of that turmoil. But I've only been at the regional's for a year, so all I know is that I don't know nothing.