Originally Posted by
CaptCoolHand
fwiw
if you were hired 2.5-3 years ago, you're holding the left seat. 320 has gone jr. to the 190. This may continue, but it's not expected to last. If you're hired tomorrow, you'll have a seniority #of about 3200. I think the jr. ca was 2385. that was past 72%. not normal. being jr. here stinks. hired today I'd say conservatively, 3-5yrs. probably more like 5-8. When we sign our first cba, things may change and i'd expect a lot of the bypass guys to jump left. so longer. this will increase upgrade exponetially. the jr capt. will be jr for a long time, we are a young group (think 35-45ish jr capts) and we have very few forced retirements.
90ish planes coming in the next 6 years. so there's lots of room for motion.
Good point about the size of the pilot group too. A newhire at #3200 would need 1600 pilots junior to him/her for a total pilot group of over 4800 pilots in order to reach 66% seniority (still optimistic for junior CA spot). Assuming a pilot net growth of ~250/yr, it would take 6yrs+ to hit this projection.