Originally Posted by
emb145
Sorry Cuj, I've been listening to your sales pitches for a while since your famous flip flop to the pro management stance you now take in every post.
I'm not pro-management. I pass along the news. You didn't question it when the news projections were bad... it's not my projection; it's theirs. So far, their projections have been fairly accurate.
Originally Posted by
emb145
You are right, Envoy's movement isn't dependent on growing as some others are doing right now. As Envoy shrinks, I gave you some ballpark numbers. Even with only flowing 20, Envoy will be out of staff by the end of 2017 with the current fleet plan. What if the 700's stay beyond the end of 2017? Will they keep on flowing and let those aircraft sit idle?
The problem with the solid movement you mention above is, you gotta have new hires to replace guys moving up or out! Is 180 per year reasonable or do you think Envoy will get more?
How many new hires was PSA getting before they were awarded new jets?
You're basing your opinion on our hiring before the flow really starts effecting movement. We've been flowing people the past several years; if we had not been shrinking the movement would already have started. Now that the shrinking has subsided the movement will become much more visible.
AAG already proved that pilots recycle themselves to where the movement is. I'm not disputing your attrition math; I just think they are correct that pilots will go where the best long term movement is. They're already getting increased hiring. We've only hired 108 all year, but over 1/2 of them were in the past 3 months.
I also think that as outlier companies fail, their pilots will recycle to places with the best movement while continuing to apply to LCC and legacies; and that will be the WO's. When a place like Commutair or Silver finally fail, where do you think their pilots will go? If they're looking for movement and flow as a backup, ENY and PDT are their best choices. I happen to think that PDT (and most of the vendors) are operating 50 seat jets that will not get their contract renewed, and where will those pilots go while waiting for LCC and legacy jobs?
Right about the time that happens, places like PSA, CPZ and others will have already hired their last fast upgrade, so where will the movement be?
The industry is going to contract upon itself. They're setting the stage for their WO's to be among the last standing.
By the way, Ric's charts for 2.5/6 were based on hiring 15 a month. They are exceeding that hiring requirement. 1,500 AA new hires over the next 2 years should clean out our entire CA list. That's a lot of upgrades and movement about to start.