Originally Posted by
emb145
What you are saying is true, however the 2.5/6 the company/union is selling is all based on projections. In the airline world it's best to work with facts. The current status is that upgrade sits at slightly under 8 years, while the current flow is mid 15 year seniority.
Similar to taking a job with a Part 91 company that has a Caravan but is "about to upgrade to a King Air 90." Until you are taxiing that King Air away from the FBO, you are still flying a Caravan.
Would you accept a job at United airlines tomorrow? Of course you would, the income and lifestyle "projections" outweigh going to the bottom of the seniority list and being potential furlough fodder in the event of another war or major crisis.
Here are the facts:
over 18,000 mainline pilots will retire the next 10 years
AA is going to retire 3800 pilots by 2021 (5 years from now)
We get 50% of those positions (later 35%, and 25%) but for all but the last few hundred it's essentially 50%
50% of 3800 is 1900 (a buffer of 150 for the lower percentage classes)
We only have 1750 pilots that will elect to flow.
So, it is factually correct that contractually we should flow our entire pilot list to American Airlines within the next 6 years.
Those are facts.
Do facts change? of course. Delta said they were hiring 600 before they said they were hiring 1,000. American said they were hiring 600 before they said they were hiring 750
Just because somebody hired now is going to have a hell of an easier time than all of us before them doesn't change the facts.
Oh, and about getting the new planes; the first is to be delivered in 6 more days. None of the other AAG regionals have a program in place and the planes are on their way. Further, flowing to AA has nothing to do with getting new planes.