So you hold a line now and are concerned you will be back on reserve for the long term because of comments on this site??? If you hold a line now (in the fall months when things are slow), I don't see how that will change. When you can hold CA I can see how this would be a concern since the movement slows down as you advance. There aren't many FO lifers, there are many CA who are.

There is an awful lot of negative noise on this board, and some of the stuff people present as fact is flat-out incorrect. This site can occasionally have some useful information but you will need a way to develop a way to filter it for accuracy. You might want to check the SAPA web site and look at the old RSR reports. Look at how the number of ERJ lines and staffing varied by base through the year. Look at how the business including block hours and lines is seasonal. Look at PBS at historical bids and see how your seniority is in your seat and how that is changing over the course of a few months. Look at how the ERJ was staffed up in relation to the current set of aircraft on property, and try to correlate that to the new aircraft announced coming next year.

Changing jobs (lateral move) can work out if you can predict the next Compass/fast upgrade path... if not, you are starting over at the bottom, on reserve, again, and spending another 3 months training. And it's taken me a few years to figure this out, but whatever you figure out is the likely scenario to play out today, probably won't happen tomorrow.