Originally Posted by
Cujo665
Would you accept a job at United airlines tomorrow? Of course you would, the income and lifestyle "projections" outweigh going to the bottom of the seniority list and being potential furlough fodder in the event of another war or major crisis.
Here are the facts:
over 18,000 mainline pilots will retire the next 10 years
AA is going to retire 3800 pilots by 2021 (5 years from now)
We get 50% of those positions (later 35%, and 25%) but for all but the last few hundred it's essentially 50%
50% of 3800 is 1900 (a buffer of 150 for the lower percentage classes)
We only have 1750 pilots that will elect to flow.
So, it is factually correct that contractually we should flow our entire pilot list to American Airlines within the next 6 years.
Those are facts.
Do facts change? of course. Delta said they were hiring 600 before they said they were hiring 1,000. American said they were hiring 600 before they said they were hiring 750
Just because somebody hired now is going to have a hell of an easier time than all of us before them doesn't change the facts.
Oh, and about getting the new planes; the first is to be delivered in 6 more days. None of the other AAG regionals have a program in place and the planes are on their way. Further, flowing to AA has nothing to do with getting new planes.
I don't disagree with the retirement numbers you have posted or with the "current plans" Envoy/AAG management has for the pilot group.
However, you list many things above that haven't occurred yet, so currently, they aren't facts.
When Envoy's first pilot upgrades that has 7 years exactly at the company, the fact will be that Envoy "currently" has a 7 year upgrade.
When the flow throughs leaving are at 14 years seniority, the fact then will be 14 years to flow.
It's projected to go down, and it may do just that. You may revise the facts monthly or weekly when that happens. It just hasn't happened yet. Knowing AMR/AAG, I just don't bank on anything until it actually happens.