Originally Posted by
emb145
I don't disagree with the retirement numbers you have posted or with the "current plans" Envoy/AAG management has for the pilot group.
However, you list many things above that haven't occurred yet, so currently, they aren't facts.
When Envoy's first pilot upgrades that has 7 years exactly at the company, the fact will be that Envoy "currently" has a 7 year upgrade.
When the flow throughs leaving are at 14 years seniority, the fact then will be 14 years to flow.
It's projected to go down, and it may do just that. You may revise the facts monthly or weekly when that happens. It just hasn't happened yet. Knowing AMR/AAG, I just don't bank on anything until it actually happens.
You're counting year where there was NO hiring in your flow projection.
How many years the pilot worked at EagleVoy or PDT or PSA is not an accurate reflection of flow.
How many years - with AA hiring pilots - did it take for a pilot to flow.
You are using a lost decade of no real hiring industry wide at major carriers and including that in your flow total.
That is not accurate of how long it takes to flow.
Likewise, with no movement from regionals to majors for the majority of the lost decade your time to upgrade is skewed also.
Those pilots at the legacies WILL retire. Even another 9-11 won't stop the retirements. It could stop growth and maybe allow some contraction, but not enough to outright stop hiring. They have too many pilots retiring.
If the hiring isn't stopping, the flow isn't stopping.
I understand the animosity and distrust towards the company; but they are along for the ride as much as we are. Time doesn't stop.
You want more facts
580 of the last 890 hired at AA came from Envoy.
That's FACT not fiction, not a projection. So, if you're telling guys to use facts; well, there it is.
The flow is working pretty much exactly as they said it would. They're hiring 1,500 over the next two years. Guess where half of them will come from.