Originally Posted by
eaglefly
- 300 to AA in 2016 ? That's 25/month -or- if they move 30/month +/- as claimed, then there would be a couple of months AA didn't take any Envoy flows at all.
- 375 to Envoy in 2016 ? That's 31/month, but that assumes little outside attrition. Even with the flow, at least 8-10 pilots/month will almost certainly leave Envoy for greener pastures (Delta to hire 1600, UAL, Jet Blue, etc.) which is VERY conservative, we're back to a
consistent 35-40 pilots/month new-hire requirement for Envoy next year.
Now some are talking about acquiring MORE flying and even more jets (30 ?) then present ?
Ok, then let's ramp that to 45+/month.
It will certainly be interesting to see.
My best estimate for 2016 from their information is they will hire 750 next year. We get 375. They estimate 100-150 furloughs may return. That leaves a worst case next year of 225 flowing. This is 5 more than what's required to prevent stepping up above pay step 12. It also jives with their advertisement of at least 200 upgrades next year.
2017 should be another 375 to flow, but no more recalls; but I bet they will withhold to 30 each month - 360 for the year - and just have to catch up in the aggregate.
That's 600 of our CA's gone in two years by flow to AA. Doesn't include the guys going elsewhere.
It's fair to say we are on track for their 2.5/6 to be a really good estimate.