Originally Posted by
RyanP
I don't think there is any plan to maintain "current" staffing levels. Right now we are WAY overstaffed. Everyone here knows it. We have over 600 pilots on RSV. We have zero time lines, and part time lines and very low unproductive line values right now. Plus we will require approximately 40 fewer crew due to losing 4 aircraft in 2016. It seems they may be keeping the staffing front loaded this way due to the plan of losing so many via flow for the next couple years.
If they can hire 1/4 of what we lose we will still be ok by having fewer reserves, and upping the line values to normal again.. for 2016 at least. We could probably get by just fine losing 400 and hiring 100 if that's all we get. Then part way through 2017 we would be closer to optimally staffed and it will get to be a problem beyond that if they still can't hire enough.. As the flow and movement start to pick up though, more people will come, it's already happening. I was just in the schoolhouse for 6 weeks and saw the biggest classes I have seen in years. Things are just barely starting to turn somewhat positive again too, so "if" things do get better in 2016, like they "should", those class sizes will grow beyond what they are now.
How does being overstaffed equate to upgrading new-hire Envoy pilot of today in 2.5 years ?
If anything, your argument angles more toward a carrier that will shrink to right-size itself through attrition over the next 18-24 months and that means a slower upgrade for the Envoy new-hire of today. A smaller Envoy means fewer captains positions and once that proper balance is reached through contraction.
Again, I think coming to any certainties about what Envoy new-hires can expect at Envoy 2.5 years from now (upgrade) let alone 6 years from now (flow to AA) is misguided. Envoy can and likely will be a completely different carrier in 2-3 years, let alone 6 and the dynamics of those projections of today are total shots in the dark. I understand why they are being cultivated and sold by Envoy management and others, but that doesn't give them any more weight.
If anything, the pool of available new-hires will only shrink further and the belief Envoy will inhale most of them, I think is also misguided.