Originally Posted by
eaglefly
How does being overstaffed equate to upgrading new-hire Envoy pilot of today in 2.5 years ?
If anything, your argument angles more toward a carrier that will shrink to right-size itself through attrition over the next 18-24 months and that means a slower upgrade for the Envoy new-hire of today. A smaller Envoy means fewer captains positions and once that proper balance is reached through contraction.
Let me revert back to my old job as a college math professor and try to explain how numbers work. Your humble opinion is that envoy will only be able to hire X number of pilots per month. Upgrades can be approximated as F/X=U, where F represents number of FOs and U equals months until upgrade. One can easily see that F and U have a direct correlation as F gets bigger so does U. So the logic of a shrinking pilot group will have a negative impact on upgrades only applies if there is downgrades. Pretty sure no one is saying that Envoy will have a displacements of Captains in the next year or two.