Originally Posted by
FlameNSky
Exactly. Dollars and Parker is going to pursue whatever solution brings new hires in the doors at his wholly owned regionals and costs him the least amount of dollars. Parker knows that the flow has value to applicants. Currently, he feels that the flow has so much value that he won't need to increase pilot compensation in order to attract enough pilots. He has stated this on several occasions during town hall meetings. Endeavor has had to give out $20,000 bonuses to attract and retain pilots. RAH has significantly increased FO pay in hopes of meeting its recruitment demands. envoy is using the flow incentive.
What would happen to Endeavor's recruitment if they announced they will no longer offer 20 Grand in bonuses? Or RAH if they revert to $21 an hour for the first year? For Parker to impede the flow would be the same thing. Its a catch 22. Yes, stopping the flow would temporarily help his regional staffing but will precipitate a huge exodus of junior pilots and bring recruitment to a standstill. It would ultimately make his regional staffing worse, not better. He does understand this.
In my opinion, Parker will ultimately need to offer further incentives to new hires in addition to the flow. I would guess that this will be done in the form of a bonus program. In the end, when the regional staffing becomes critical, offering more money (bonus, increased pay, or school loan reimbursement) will ultimately cost Parker less money without sabotaging envoy recruitment efforts than stopping the flow. It will be his cheapest alternative which it why I can confidently tell you, that is the course he will take.
It is easy to say, "Yeah, they will just stop the flow." but it will not be the lowest cost solution so AAG will not pursue it. I could also see an acquisition solution.
We have differing views and you present a different way of looking at
things. AMR burned me in the past and I know AAG is different management, but in the end, they are all the same. The execs are looking out for the stock price, shareholders and themselves.
Let's visit this particular topic in a year and see how things shake out. For the Envoy pilots, let's hope that your scenario plays out. I just think that the availability of pilots is becoming more critical. The crisis of pilot availability is already here and most regional management groups are throwing money and/or flow at it right now.
Look back to just two years ago and compare it to now. Great Lakes was still paying $16/hr. Now they are paying $28 and are about out of business due to the lack of bodies. How about Republic? Bedford stalled for 8 years to get rock bottom rates and rake in the dough off the backs of the pilots working under that old agreement. He literally pushed this latest contract through himself.
Hopefully you have apps in at the Big 3, Alaska, Jetblue, Spirit, Virgin, etc. I wouldn't sit around Envoy waiting on the big flow if any of the above call.