Originally Posted by
2loud
This is important to note. Timing is everything. Remember the early '90s when 1/2 of the UPT grads were getting banked and the washout rates increased? We lost over 1/3 of our class and a couple of them washed out of T-38s in the last few weeks prior to graduation. Some classes washed out up to 50%-very rare but happened. Fast forward a decade...it took an act of God to wash anyone out.
The Air Force can't afford to wash that many people out right now. They've created their own shortage and can't seem to catch up. Luck and timing is everything!
I remember listening to some old crusty blue suit, sim instructor talk about his very thing when I was in pilot training (mid 2000s). He had just retired from the reserves and spent most of his LONG career in AETC (or ATC for you old dudes). He mentioned that in the 80s/early 90s the AF just threw a ridiculous amount of guys into UPT and filtered them out there. Well the AF can't afford to do that these days and seems to be more stringent in UPT selects. He thought that the average UPT stud was a better candidate than that of those in the years past. His words.
Not sure how big class sizes were back then, but for reference my class only had 25 studs and 2 washed out.