That's a tough question & subject to a lot of variables. My best guess would be at least a year, if not more. The variables are: what aircraft you get, what city you get, how much flying we gain/loose in the future, how many pilots above you leave, and how many new pilots come in beneath you. I would say that the main factor (and the argument on the previous pages) is, how well is the flow to American going to work in the future? One group says the flood gates are about to open, and the other group says it's a fools dream to believe in the 2.5/6 year claim. I personally think the truth is somewhere in the middle. I've been on the CRJ for 2 years and I'm still on reserve & only half way up the list. However, I live in base, so reserve is actually better than a line. I usually get an extra 2 or more days off per month from sitting at home, I pick up extra flying on my days off, I can't remember the last time I was on a 4 day trip, and I spent 2 nights in a hotel last month. Admittedly life on the bottom of the reserve list is MUCH different from those on the top. Life on the bottom is terrible, life in the middle is OK, and life at the top is great.