It's all speculation which means little to a pilot hired at Envoy today, so don't be dazzled by the psychobabble of circus tent hucksters. As an example, AA may not even maintain its present size over the next 6 years so if X pilots retire at AA, that does NOT mean "half of those guys will be replaced by Envoy captains ensuring that the upgrade will continue to drop" in any quantifiable time frame when talking about Envoy flow or upgrade. If Envoy cannot lure in enough new-hires to match attrition, it too shrinks impacting upgrade schedule, so that is another variable that only is quantifiable as a present snapshot.

A more rewarding line at this circus is the one for cotton candy vs. the "step right up folks and win a stuffed toy" game you're hearing now. Envoy is a crap shoot, not a guaranteed payoff and THAT is the ONLY guarantee.