Originally Posted by
sublime259
Nobody is claiming "voila" as you say (except for Cujo664, but that's another story). The 2.5/6 came out less than 6 months ago, so I would hardly claim 1.5/5 anytime soon.
Question for you...In order for new applicants to trust the 2.5/6, do you want to wait another 2 years and re-visit the topic? Or do you want AAG to guarantee that said pilot will upgrade in 2.5 and be at AA in 6 years? Because that sort of guarantee is not gonna happen.
If you want to talk about reality, then the reality is envoy is done shrinking and likely getting back more flying. The reality is that 50% of classes at AA will be made up of envoy pilots for at least the next 5 years. The reality is that current attrition is not only from a very substantial amount of flows, but also normal attrition.
So...will 2.5/6 happen? I'm extremely confident it will, but won't guarantee it.
No, there aren't garentees, but putting that number in people's head is exactly how you get jaded FO's. I think the next 6 years will be far better than the previous 6 years.
I truely think that any young Cfi going to a jet regional that operates or has plans to operate a 50+ seat jet will have a stable furture for the next 6 years and won't see any real curve balls.
I think your company will be just fine, and will be just as good a choice as any other. The 2.5/6 is an aggressive marketing tool like the 1k pilots PSA needs. Cujo sounds like the washed up bum at a race track that just knows which horse to bet on even though his track record is terrable, and he's not going to place any bets himself.