Originally Posted by
daOldMan
More or less, AAG is giving up more than 100% of their new hire classes to WO'd flows. There is no way that this will work. I'll keep it simple for you...you can't have more than 100%.
AA management has stated to the best of my recollection, for now the flow pattern will mimic what has already been stated, but in the future they plan to have more opportunity for street hires, both civilian and military. Ultimately, I think in a couple or three years from now once the mainline merger related synergies are finished and the regional network cleaned up and streamlined, the three WO's (if no consolidation occurs), will be approximately equal sized with equal flows taking perhaps 2/3-3/4 of the classes with street hires making up the remainder. That is one major reason I think any claim by ANY of the WO's of new-hires of today flowing (and thus upgrading) in X years to be simply the product of not AAG, but of the various individual WO managements all jockeying for position for their own interests and maximum slice of the pie. They all want to "play ball" with Parker and get as many pats on the head as possible to best assure their own futures.
Originally Posted by daOldMan:2014071
If you think that Envoy will go above 35% once the 824 are gone, you are sadly mistaken. Envoy will be slightly larger than PDT, but smaller than PSA at that point. AAG will have what they want - 3 WO'd that are all about the same size, and will be able to play them against each other. The hostile attitudes that Envoy has against the others is exactly what AAG wants. You guys are cheerleading for a company that is playing you. Seriously. Wake up.
In a consolidation, one big WO or perhaps two equal ones like Envoy and a merged PSA/Piedmont would have equal slices of the pie. It makes sense as AAG wouldn't want to weaken one carrier at the expense of the other when it only hurts them. The unions at these regionals will play ball. The Envoy 824 is an anomaly in that equation as it is more the product of an arbitration with specific awards, instead of mutually agreed contractual provisions that just imply changeable numbers. Additionally, most of those 824 pilots are above the competitions 12 year regional scales and it makes economic sense to clean those pilots up to first-year mainline scale. As part of the likely event the (according to Parker) "world changing again", it's likely as part of a future requirement to join the team, so to speak, the regional unions will have to agree to 12/4 pay scales with little or no grandfathering thus encouraging all to flow. Parker knows the unions will play ball as they'll have little choice as Parker has already established who wins that game in the end.
The AA WO situation is transient and fluid right now to many variables, but will likely stabilize into a different model within a few years and that means anyone contemplating going to any of the AA WO's now for flow purposes, probably wont be any worse off going to PSA or Piedmont then Envoy as those carriers are likely to grow after 2016 and Envoy likely to slowly contract and in the future flow scenario (at least for a prospective AA flow wannabe), it may not be important which carrier to go to based on flow claims of today, but which one gets your longevity clock starting for SLI purposes in the event of consolidation and absent SLI (consolidation), which carrier is likely to grow in the post 2016 period vs. which is likely to contract to achieve the three (or two) WO carrier equilibrium, thus at least maximizing upgrade and non-AA options.
Just my .02 on that last paragraph though.................