What I believe many "get" is the idea where the longer the time period the more risk is involved. I believe it is also why the old sage, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."

While I have no idea what the actual dollar amounts of this AIP are (I'm betting it's more than 13%, but I could be wrong) I do know this, the normal contact process means it will be at least two to three years before there is any change if this is voted out.

Now with that being said it also means this AIP pushes the contract out another two years, which means in reality at least four to five more years of the same work rules.

So the conclusion is this, pay me now and wait for a few more years to pass under the bridge to see any, (the great unknown) changes in the work rules of the contract. Or hope the contract will have substantial improvements in about two plus years.

Now I do believe this, from UAL's position if the upfront raise is only 13% and no work rules are changed, they are getting a bargain. Assuming a no vote and in about two to three years the contract gets a substantial cost increase in wages 13% will seem like chump change.

But, the further out things are the fuzzier the crystal ball is.

I'll take the money and current contract today.