One misconception is the assumtion that AA will hire an equal number of pilots that retire for every year in the applicable future. Another is the assumption Envoy can attract 850 pilots from anywhere during 2017 and the first half of 2018. That's a boatload ofmpilots and would be an eye-opening record considering the available pool. Many Envoy pilots had no plans to leave Envoy a year or so ago when Envoy was contracting because once there for a few years, many felt they were too committed to risk starting over at another regional and thus wern't willing to cut and run when Envoy was in an inverted flat spin. Likewise, I think most non-Envoy regional pilots aren't going to shoot craps on going to Envoy and starting at the bottom, certainly not present non-Envoy regional captains. Sure, a few here and there might deem the risk acceptable, but most won't. Envoy ALPA even acknowledged that whether they like it or not by attempting to get management to agree to a competitive pilot poaching scheme to jump start that which they knew to be a marginal chance of success without it.

If Envoy can't match attrition both flow and non-flow, it again contracts and a smaller airline needs fewer captains and a contracting airline is more prone to stagnation, especially with many pilots who themselves feel to committed to starting over at another regional themselves.

There is no yes or no answer and it all comes down to how each potentially interested gambler considers the risks of this table. Only they can decide if they're wiling to "ante up" at this table or consider the odds too much in favor of the house. Personally, I would want to see what cards the dealer already has displayed (whether the claims made seem viable), before I put my ante up.