Originally Posted by
JohnBurke
Far longer than a decade. The "pilot shortage myth" has been perpetuated for decades, and it's never been true. It still isn't. It was the darling of Kit Darby and his pack of lies for a long time, and it's been the swan song of flight schools and colleges for decades.
There is no shortage of pilots. The shortage is on the pay side for the companies that fail to attract pilots. There are plenty of pilots; one isn't a shoe-in at the majors today simply becuase one is qualified; there are plenty of applicants. If a regional has difficulty getting applicants, because all the applicants are in line elsewhere, then compete. Pay enough to pull them back, and treat them like professionals. No problem.
Going to happen?
No.
Great lakes would rather chop out seats and go 135. That's indicative of the lowbrow quality of the companies that cry pilot shortage. There is no pilot shortage, but for those who can't attract pilots, the mirror will be a valuable source for finding the problem.
I entirely agree that it is the ****tiest companies that are crying "pilot shortage" because they want lawmakers and the public to think there is no solution but to lower the standards, and I in no way support that. I am curious though what the true pilot supply looks like.
Bear with me for a second and imagine that every regional airplane currently operating under contract for their respective mainlines were to be absorbed by their major counterparts tomorrow (ENY, PDT, PSA = AA, QX=AS, 9E=DAL, etc.). All the flying continues and everyone works for a major getting better pay, better benefits, etc.
That would certainly sending people flocking to flight schools to learn to fly, lots of mil guys might retire instead of shoot for 20, lots of corporate/135 would bail for the airlines. However, making a pilot isn't just throwing on a tie and an oversized hat and having them sit in the right seat - would there be no period of time where there wasn't a thinner-than-ideal number of applicants? I imagine not if that happened right now, but the hiring wave is not yet at its peak.
I don't like the term "shortage" because it suggests we need to take drastic measures to fix the problem. If they improved the job, there would be no problem, never would have been, and the solution is STILL to improve the job, not change the standards. However, to what extent will the damage be done in a short-term sense?