Originally Posted by
Dorn
I'll say this much. Things might not be all roses right now but if you look at the numbers of pilots who have flowed and the projections which IMO will not stop we can see a lot of attrition here in the next 2 years. I had recurrent the other month and he sat down and spent about an hour plus answering any questions we had. He told us how AAG has determined the flow through and upgrade numbers and he himself said some of the data has assumptions such as X number of FO's/ month leaving for other airlines etc. I'm not necessarily defending the said times, just that this isn't something he just made up on the fly.
AAG is hanging their hat, as of now, on flow and it seems to me they are well aware what would happen to their WO if that ceases. With the amount of retirees AA is facing I have no doubts things will at least improve significantly in 2016. Don't forget if you look at the seniority lists we have huge gaps in DOH from 2001-2004, not a lot in 2005, 2009-20011. So while it seems like a joke with the 2.5 and 6, it COULD happen if the "assumptions" in AAG's calculations are correct. I personally don't think it will be as quick as they say but probably not too far off, especially with the flow.
A new hire here will have at least one benefit and that is at least a flow into AA and can still keep their apps up to date and get hired off the street with the other 2 majors eventually. As for other regional guys who want to go to AA they on the other hand are in a bad spot since the majority of new hires into AA will be primarily military and obviously a few select others.
For those of you who are not here, I would be cautious reading too much into everything negative here. Ya there's a lot that needs fixing, but I can't say this is a terrible place to work. I've personally enjoyed my time here and just as in life it's all about what you make of things.
Nice pitch. Really.
I agree one should be cautious about reading too much into anything negative, but I think one should apply that attitude to supposedly positive things too. Positive is good, provided it is indeed honest, accurate, doable and with no personal or ulterior motive. The "update" which was released had no new information from what I saw, simply reiterating old info and the old info of a 2.5 year upgrade claim once again stated requires a massive upgrade schedule in 2017 and the first half of 2018 to be realistic. It's difficult to see how Envoy can do that and I don't even see them promising to, at least specifically. The question of why it was put out now, especially with nothing really new to add understandably has some suspicious as to why considering the recent flying hours/scheduling communique and if there is suspicion as to that, then once could reasonably question its motive.
Perhaps an Envoy pilot could get this source to first confirm the 2017-2018 upgrade schedule plan to include all F/O's on property and then provide more detail as to how. Remember, if they plan to upgrade all remaining F/O's beyond the 200-and-change next year by mid 2018, they'll need as many new-hires during that period and that would be double what is claimed to be brought aboard next year.
The most important thing prospective entry-level pilots need from ANY airline source is accuracy and honesty. Right now, across this segment of the industry, that appears difficult to find as due to the deepening regional airline pilot crisis, it seems that any claim goes, no matter how questionable or unlikely.