Originally Posted by
Shiner
Personal opinion rant: I don't think Ric reiterated the 2.5/6 to distract from the news schedules aren't improving. They couldn't care less about current employee morale, as evidenced by the reserve debacle that is ongoing and totally preventable. I'm sure this email was intended to boost recruiting, as 350 new hires is a lofty target in this environment.
I'm glad they keep pushing 2.5/6, personally. After hearing years and years of bad news about shrinking and losing flying, this type of optimism, even from management, is better than the alternative of losing more airplanes. It was about this time last year that more 145 transfers were announced. Now, the 175 is arriving, the CRJ's will hang around, and the 145's are supposedly coming back. If you step back and realizes who is doing the talking, and understand that those projections should be taken with a grain of salt, there's no harm in looking at the bright side.
With regards to the projections, I think the 2.5 claim is off the mark. The six year flow seems very reasonable at this point. Six years is an eternity, and a lot could change, good or bad, in that time frame. The next 2.5 years could be really good here, but good enough to move that many pilots up the list? I doubt it. I think a 4 year upgrade is a solid conservative estimate.
Either way, for me personally, I'm going to keep the flow in my back pocket and apply off the street and see where I end up. There's going to be an unprecedented amount of retirements/hiring over the next decade. I'd say no matter where you are sitting, it's going to be a good ride.
Sounds like the best plan for you. You're invested in Envoy and that makes a difference. The more investment, the less likelihood of altering your present course. Now say if Jet Blue, Spirit or Frontier calls or even offers a class date, then things get a bit more complicated. If Delta or United calls, that's a no-brainer IMO. From my POV, the 2.5 claim is clearly stretching it and if that's being clearly stretched, what else should one believe ? As for the 6 year flow, IMO, it's not that that is unrealistic, it's just too far out to attach any confidence in, especially considering past history and future volatility. Way too far out. Combine the two, add the monthly repetition of such and the questions surrounding the source and as a package, I consider it what should be of minimal consideration for someone weighing their options in considering a regional carrier as a street hire and especially someone thinking of jumping present ship. Better to place more weight in more tangible components then that if you're making your first move and a lateral one. Those considerations will vary with the pilot though.
The next decade should indeed offer more for movement from regionals to LCC and legacies then in the past and that is good. However, the legacies especially can still be very choosy and seniority in the name of the game. Many present regional pilots will spend far longer in the regionals then they expect simply because the LCC's and legacies can pick and choose as their still is a good supply of regional and non-regional pilots to choose from. Some will never make the jump for any number of reasons. Luck is still a major component.